avon labs

Avon Labs Outlook

Outlook

Seven short essays. Each one stands alone and makes one argument. Read in order, they climb a ladder of scale, from the person to the species.

Begin with Part 1 7 essays · 37 min

The ladder of scale: the person, the company, science, the physical economy, the workforce, the nation, the species.PERSONCOMPANYSCIENCEPHYSICAL ECONOMYWORKFORCENATIONSPECIES
The ladder of scale
  1. Part 01 The person

    The Floor Just Moved

    We evolved to need the group. AI has raised the floor of intelligence available to anyone, so one person can attempt almost anything and headcount stops being the default answer to ambition.

    5 min read
  2. Part 02 The company

    Don’t Retrofit

    Bolting AI onto old processes is the steam-engine swap. The next great companies are built from scratch, built to be found, and built for customers that are software.

    5 min read
  3. Part 03 Science

    We Are Still in the Stone Age

    Our materials and energy are flint and firewood. The next breakthroughs are partly hiding in research nobody finished reading, and the bottleneck moves to the lab.

    5 min read
  4. Part 04 The physical economy

    Intelligence Runs on Atoms

    Cheaper intelligence grows physical demand, as Jevons predicted for coal. Energy, materials, and robotics set the pace.

    6 min read
  5. Part 05 The workforce

    Money Is Not the Bottleneck

    Capital is abundant. Operators and skilled trades are not, and you can’t download an electrician.

    6 min read
  6. Part 06 The nation

    Mobilize

    A country competes with the industrial base it built beforehand. Reindustrialize, secure the supply chains, and fix a government that isn’t ready.

    6 min read
  7. Part 07 The species

    Point It at the Stars

    All this horsepower needs a frontier, or we will point it at each other. Space is the hardest integration test and the largest positive-sum project we have.

    4 min read